Development and adaptation of forecasting schemes for unfavorable meteorological conditions and air pollution indicators.

EDN: PPUCHB
Development and adaptation of forecasting schemes for unfavorable meteorological conditions and air pollution indicators. Genikhovich E. L., Kirillova V. I., Rumyantsev D. Yu., Pavlov I. N., Bulavina E. V., Yakovleva E. A. Proceedings of MGO. 2026. V. 621. P. 8–56.
This article examines the development of forecasting schemes for unfavorable meteorological conditions (UMC) that contribute to the accumulation of pollutants in the surface layer of the atmosphere, and their updating (adaptation),
i. e., adjustments in connection with significant changes in their applicability since their development and/or in the characteristics of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere (e. g., due to the reconstruction of large industrial facilities, the redistribution of traffic flows within the city, etc.). To analyze potential changes
to forecasting schemes, air pollution monitoring data from Norilsk, where large-scale production reconstruction has been underway at the Norilsk Nickel's Polar Division, were used. The identified patterns were used to develop a new methodology for updating UMC forecasting schemes. Several proposed updating methods were tested using air pollution observations in seven Russian cities (Abakan, Chernogorsk, Berezniki, Gubakha, Perm, Solikamsk, and Ufa). The results obtained can be used in the operational practice of Roshydromet institutions
in specialized UMC forecasting for Russian cities.
Keywords: unfavorable meteorological conditions (UMC), pollutant concentrations, emission regulation, forecasting scheme, new methodology, scheme updating (adaptation), specialized UMC forecast.
Fig. 15. Tab. 4. Ref. 26.

 

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